Obama Would Annihilate Palin in a 2012 Presidential Face-Off - The Intrepid

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Obama Would Annihilate Palin in a 2012 Presidential Face-Off

Obama and Palin

According to a new Public Policy Polling Survey President Obama would obliterate Sarah Palin in a hypothetical 2012 Presidential election by more than 400 electoral votes [PDF]. The national opinion survey, which was conducted last week, indicates that Obama currently leads Palin 55-35 per cent. If the match-up were to occur today, the election would be one of the biggest popular vote blowouts in American history—even overshadowing Richard Nixon’s victory over George McGovern in 1972.

Although any match-up is premature, several Republican opinion polls suggest that Palin is strongly favoured as the Republican nominee for 2012, despite the movement within the party against her. In fact, the polling survey indicates that Palin’s unpopularity within her own party would probably do her the greatest harm. While only three per cent of Democrats are unsure about who they would vote for in an Obama/Palin contest, eighteen per cent of Republicans are undecided.

So, on a state-by-state basis, what would the results look like? What states would Obama pick-up? Which ones would Palin lose?

Obama Palin 2012 Electoral Map

States Obama Would Most Likely Pick-Up

  • Missouri
  • Louisiana
  • Georgia
  • Montana
Toss Up States
  • North Dakota
  • South Dakota
  • Arizona
  • South Carolina
Palin might be popular with some Republicans, but unless she finds a way to revitalize her tattered image, she's probably not going to be the Republican nominee.

Electoral map template comes from the New York Times.


Anonymous said...

Um, McGovern only won one state.

Stephen M. said...

Yes, but in the paragraph where I cite McGovern I'm only referring to the popular vote. In 1972, McGovern received 37.5% of the popular vote. When I wrote this article, Public Policy's polling survey indicated that Palin would probably only receive 35% of the vote in a match up against Obama. That's a bigger popular vote blowout than the 1972 election.