Election Prediction Project predicts the same outcome as in 2006 - The Intrepid

Monday, October 13, 2008

Election Prediction Project predicts the same outcome as in 2006

As the 2008 Federal Election comes down to the wire, EPP (Election Prediction Project) has finally called the remainder of the races previously too close to call. The results: pretty much the outcome in 2006. The Conservatives gain 1, the Liberals lose 9, the NDP gains 7, and the Bloc stays the same at 51. If Election Day plays out as predicted the balance of power in the House of Commons will remain the same, unless some sort of multi party coalition is forged.

Any coalition seems unsustainable. A three party coalition between the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc would be a nightmare and the Conservatives seem too at odds with the other parties to form anything that wouldn’t be viewed by supporters as a conflict of interests. Tomorrow, Stephen Harper will inherit the same “dysfunctional” political landscape that prompted him to call the October 14th election in the first place.

However, EPP usually gets approximately 10% of its predictions wrong. This works out to about 31 out of 308 seats. Not enough to dramatically swing the election one way or another. But, perhaps enough to bolster Harper’s confidence if the Conservatives win a strong minority or save Dion’s hide if the Liberals can hold on to their 2006 seats.

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