Latest Gallup Poll puts Obama back in the Lead, Barley - The Intrepid

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Latest Gallup Poll puts Obama back in the Lead, Barley

The latest Gallup Poll seems to indicate that John McCain’s post convention bounce is fading, but for all intensive purposes, the race is still tied. While Obama may have a slight two-point edge, the various state polls still show a resurgent John McCain. States like North and South Dakota, both of which voted for Bush in 2004 have firmly moved back into the Republican camp.

Obama’s support is also weakening in Wisconsin and Michigan. Although Pollster.com gives Obama a slight lead both states, that lead is shrinking, and Michigan is currently marked as a toss-up. Obama’s lead in traditional blue states like Oregon and Washington State is also shrinking.

Perhaps most significant, however, is the gains that Obama is making in Virginia and West Virginia. While McCain still leads in both states by about two points, Obama is closing the gap.

While polling data is still untrustworthy at this stage in the game, all the polls seem to indicate that Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia, Ohio, and New Hampshire are swing states in this election. With the exception of Michigan, McCain and Obama have both enjoyed a recent lead in all of these states.

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